How much does it cost to heat with a mini split?

What the same heat costs from a mini split, a gas, propane or oil furnace and a space heater this winter, from each model's heating rating and the Energy Information Administration's forecast prices for your region.

The short answer

At this winter's US average prices, a million BTU of heat (about ten therms) costs $18 from the middle mini split we list, rated HSPF2 10.0, against $16 from a standard gas furnace, $34 from propane, $46 from heating oil and $53 from a space heater or electric baseboard. So a mini split heats for about 34% of what resistance heat costs, 53% of propane and 40% of oil. Natural gas stays cheaper at the national average; by EIA's regional forecasts, only in the South does the middle mini split undercut a standard gas furnace over a season. On a 5°F night, at full output, the middle certified model's heat costs $27 per million BTU, still 50% of a space heater's.

Prices: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, November 2026 to March 2027 Work it out from your own bill

Mini split, over a season

$18

per million BTU, HSPF2 10.0, US average

Standard gas furnace

$16

per million BTU, 80% AFUE

Space heater or baseboard

$53

per million BTU, every kWh becomes 3,412 BTU

Prices for

National averages. EIA's forecast for November 2026 to March 2027: electricity 18.2¢/kWh, natural gas $1.30 a therm, propane $2.52 and heating oil $5.26 a gallon.

What a million BTU of heat costs this winter, US average

The same heat delivered into your home from each source, cheapest first. A million BTU is about ten therms, roughly what a 12,000 BTU mini split puts out in about 83 hours at its full rating.

  1. Natural gas furnace, condensing$14

    95% AFUE

  2. Natural gas furnace, standard$16

    80% AFUE, the federal minimum

  3. Mini split, over a season$18

    Middle listed model, HSPF2 10.0 (COP 2.9)

  4. Mini split, on a 5°F night$27

    Middle certified model at full output, COP 2.0

  5. Propane furnace, condensing$29

    95% AFUE

  6. Propane furnace, standard$34

    80% AFUE, the federal minimum

  7. Heating oil furnace$46

    83% AFUE, the federal minimum

  8. Space heater or electric baseboard$53

    Every kWh becomes 3,412 BTU (COP 1)

Every mini split we list, by what its heat costs

"Over a season" uses the model's HSPF2, the federal seasonal heating rating (its seasonal COP is HSPF2 divided by 3.412). "On a 5°F night" uses the COP ENERGY STAR certified for the pairing at its maximum 5°F output, and "An hour flat out at 5°F" is what that output draws for an hour, the most it can cost to run then. At 18.2¢/kWh.

ModelSizeHSPF2Per million BTU, over a seasonCOP at 5°FPer million BTU, 5°F nightAn hour flat out at 5°FPrice
Senville SENA-06HF-NLSenville Aura6,000 BTU14.8$122.39$22$0.17944 W for 7,700 BTU$970 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-24HF-NLSenville Aura24,000 BTU13.5$132.34$23$0.553,031 W for 24,200 BTU$1,770 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-09HF-16Senville Aura9,000 BTU12.5$151.80$30$0.341,872 W for 11,500 BTU$1,299 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-24HF-IFNLSenville Aura24,000 BTU12.1$152.16$25$0.603,284 W for 24,200 BTU$1,750 at Sylvane
MRCOOL DIY-18-HP-WM-230D25-OMRCOOL DIY18,000 BTU11.5$162.44$22$0.281,537 W for 12,800 BTU$2,609 at Sylvane
MRCOOL DIY-09-HP-WM-115D25-OMRCOOL DIY9,000 BTU11.5$162.17$25$0.18986 W for 7,300 BTU$2,029 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-18HF-16Senville Aura18,000 BTU11.0$171.92$28$0.502,748 W for 18,000 BTU$1,600 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT009GLSI25RH-16SPioneer Quantum Hyperformance9,000 BTU10.5$171.80$30$0.271,482 W for 9,100 BTU$1,312 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT012GLSI25RH-16SPioneer Quantum Hyperformance12,000 BTU10.5$171.80$30$0.361,954 W for 12,000 BTU$1,398 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-18HF-IFNLSenville Aura18,000 BTU10.3$181.86$29$0.492,679 W for 17,000 BTU$1,570 at Sylvane
Daikin FTXF12AXVJU/RXF12AXVJUDaikin Oterra12,000 BTU10.2$182.32$23$0.15834 W for 6,600 BTUNo live offer
MRCOOL DIY-12-HP-WM-115D25-OMRCOOL DIY12,000 BTU10.2$182.08$26$0.221,184 W for 8,400 BTU$2,069 at Sylvane
Daikin FTXF09BVJU9/RXF09BVJU9Daikin Oterra9,000 BTU10.2$182.00$27$0.211,128 W for 7,700 BTU$1,615 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT012ALSI24RL-10SPioneer Quantum Ultra12,000 BTU10.0$182.10$25$0.231,242 W for 8,900 BTU$1,163 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT018GLSI25RH-16SPioneer Quantum Hyperformance18,000 BTU10.0$181.80$30$0.532,898 W for 17,800 BTU$1,858 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT018GLSI24RL-16Pioneer Quantum Ultra18,000 BTU10.0$181.80$30$0.402,214 W for 13,600 BTU$1,553 at Sylvane
Senville SENA-15HF-NLSenville Aura15,000 BTU9.9$181.80$30$0.341,872 W for 11,500 BTU$1,469 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT012GLUI25FV-16SPioneer Quantum Fresh12,000 BTU9.5$192.00$27$0.271,480 W for 10,100 BTU$1,468 at Sylvane
MRCOOL DIY-24-HP-WM-230D25-OMRCOOL DIY24,000 BTU9.5$192.00$27$0.432,359 W for 16,100 BTU$3,169 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT009ALSI20RLPioneer Diamante Pro9,000 BTU9.5$191.90$28$0.211,126 W for 7,300 BTU$858 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT009ALSI24RL-10SPioneer Quantum Ultra9,000 BTU9.5$191.90$28$0.201,095 W for 7,100 BTU$1,083 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT009GLSI24RL-10SPioneer Quantum Ultra9,000 BTU9.5$191.90$28$0.201,095 W for 7,100 BTU$1,053 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT024GLSI24RL-16Pioneer Quantum Ultra23,000 BTU9.5$191.80$30$0.553,029 W for 18,600 BTUSearch Amazon
MRCOOL A-24-HP-230D-OMRCOOL Advantage24,000 BTU9.3$202.14$25$0.422,328 W for 17,000 BTU$1,649 at Sylvane
Senville SENL-24CD-16Senville Leto24,000 BTU9.3$202.14$25$0.422,328 W for 17,000 BTU$1,259 at Sylvane
MRCOOL EZPRO-09-HP-11516D-OMRCOOL DIY Easy Pro9,000 BTU9.2$202.07$26$0.16878 W for 6,200 BTU$1,388 at Sylvane
MRCOOL EZPRO-09-HP-WMAH-115DE-OMRCOOL DIY Easy Pro9,000 BTU9.2$202.07$26$0.16878 W for 6,200 BTU$1,487 at Sylvane
MRCOOL A-09-HP-230D-OMRCOOL Advantage9,000 BTU9.1$202.07$26$0.18991 W for 7,000 BTU$829 at Sylvane
Senville SENL-09CD/220-16Senville Leto9,000 BTU9.1$202.07$26$0.18991 W for 7,000 BTUSearch Amazon
MRCOOL A-09-HP-115D-OMRCOOL Advantage9,000 BTU9.0$201.96$27$0.18972 W for 6,500 BTU$899 at Sylvane
Pioneer WYT012ALFI22RLPioneer Diamante Ultra12,000 BTU9.0$201.80$30$0.261,417 W for 8,700 BTUSearch Amazon

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Turn your own heating bill into mini-split heat

What a month of heat costs depends on your home, so start from what you used. Enter a winter month's fuel from your bill; for gas or electricity, take off what a summer month uses for hot water, cooking or lights, so only the heating is left. Blank fields use EIA's forecast for the US and the federal minimum furnace efficiency.

That month's fuel gave your home about 8.0 million BTU of heat at 80% efficiency, and cost about $130 at $1.30 per therm.

From the middle mini split we list (HSPF2 10.0), the same heat would cost about $146 (800 kWh at 18.23¢) at its seasonal rating, or up to $214 if every hour were a 5°F night at full output.

About $16 more a month at the seasonal rating. The seasonal rating is set for DOE's moderate climate region, so in a colder one expect more than the seasonal figure; the 5°F figure is what the coldest hours cost at full output.

How these figures are worked out

  • Prices are the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (October 6, 2026), forecast average residential prices for November 2026 to March 2027, by Census region. Electricity comes from the same forecast, so every fuel is priced for the same months.
  • Heat per unit of fuel uses EIA's conversion factors: 3,412 BTU per kWh, 1,036 BTU per cubic foot of natural gas (100,000 per therm), 91,452 per gallon of propane and 138,500 per gallon of heating oil.
  • Furnaces are priced at the federal minimum efficiency (10 CFR 430.32), 80% AFUE for gas and propane and 83% for oil, and at 95% for a condensing gas or propane furnace, the level new gas furnaces must meet from December 2028. AFUE counts what goes up the flue, not heat lost from ducts, so a ducted furnace fares slightly better here than in a home.
  • Mini splits are priced at their HSPF2, the federal seasonal rating (seasonal COP = HSPF2 / 3.412), measured for DOE's moderate climate region, so a colder winter costs more than the seasonal figure. The 5°F figures use each pairing's COP as ENERGY STAR certified it at maximum output, the costly end of a cold night. 31 of the 31 models have that certification.
  • Only US single-zone mini splits for one room that state an HSPF2 are listed. Central ducted and multi-zone systems are left out. Nothing here is paid placement.
How cold can a mini split heat?What each mini split still delivers at 5°F and 17°F.The best mini splits for cold climatesOur picks for cold regions, with live prices.How much does a mini split cost?What each size costs today, and what installation adds.The best air conditioners that also heatHeat pumps first, with live in-stock picks.

Frequently asked

How much does it cost to run a mini split per month for heat?
It depends on how much heat your home needs, which the unit's size does not tell you, so the honest figure is the cost per unit of heat: $18 per million BTU from the middle mini split we list (HSPF2 10.0) at this winter's US average electricity price of 18.23¢/kWh. For example, a mini split averaging 6,000 BTU an hour for 30 days (a 12,000 BTU model at half its rating around the clock) delivers 4.3 million BTU, about $79 a month, where a space heater would cost $231 for the same heat. To get your own figure, enter a winter month from your current bill in the converter on this page.
Is a mini split cheaper than gas heat?
Usually not, at this winter's prices. Natural gas is cheap per BTU, so a standard 80% furnace delivers a million BTU for $16 at the US average, against $18 from the middle mini split over a season. By region (mini split against a standard gas furnace): Northeast $26 against $19; Midwest $17 against $13; South $16 against $17; West $20 against $18. So the mini split comes out ahead only in the South, and a 95% condensing furnace beats it everywhere. A mini split with a higher HSPF2 narrows the gap; the table on this page prices each one.
Is a mini split cheaper than propane?
Yes, in every region at this winter's prices. A million BTU from a standard propane furnace costs $34 at the US average and $29 from a 95% condensing one, against $18 from the middle mini split over a season and $27 even on a 5°F night at full output. By region (mini split against a standard propane furnace): Northeast $26 against $45; Midwest $17 against $28; South $16 against $44; West $20 against $34.
Is a mini split cheaper than oil heat?
Yes, in every region at this winter's prices. EIA forecasts heating oil at $5.26 a gallon on average, so an 83% oil furnace delivers a million BTU for $46. The middle mini split delivers it for $18 over a season at the US average electricity price, or $26 at the Northeast's 26.19¢/kWh, where most oil-heated homes are.
Is a mini split cheaper to run than a space heater?
Yes. A space heater or electric baseboard turns each kWh into 3,412 BTU, so a million BTU costs $53 at the US average. A mini split moves heat in from outdoors instead: the middle one we list delivers the same heat for $18 over a season, about 34% of the space heater's cost, and the certified models still deliver 1.8 to 2.4 times a space heater's heat per kWh at 5°F.
How much does it cost to run a mini split per hour for heat?
Flat out on a 5°F night, the most a model can draw then, the certified mini splits we list cost $0.15 to $0.60 an hour at the US average electricity price, depending on their size; the table on this page gives each one. In milder weather a mini split usually runs below full output and its efficiency rises, so most hours cost less.
Does a mini split cost more to heat with when it is very cold?
Yes. A heat pump moves less heat per kWh as the outdoor air gets colder. Over a season, the middle mini split we list works at a COP of 2.9 (its HSPF2 of 10.0 divided by 3.412); at its maximum output on a 5°F night, the middle certified model works at a COP of 2.0, so the same heat then costs $27 per million BTU instead of $18, still 50% of what a space heater costs.
What does HSPF2 mean for my heating bill?
HSPF2 is the federal seasonal heating rating: the BTU of heat a heat pump delivers over a heating season per watt-hour of electricity, measured for DOE's moderate climate region. Divide it by 3.412 for its seasonal COP, the heat per unit of electricity a space heater would give as 1. Every point of HSPF2 cuts the cost of heat: at the US average electricity price, HSPF2 9.0 costs $20 per million BTU and HSPF2 14.8 costs $12, the range among the mini splits we list. In a colder climate the season's real efficiency is lower than the rating.