When is the best time to buy an air conditioner?

The usual advice is to wait for fall or winter, when stores clear their stock. We record the price of every air conditioner we list at each store once a day, so instead of repeating the advice, here is what happened to the same models since July 2026.

The short answer

We compared 254 air conditioner listings, each the same model at the same store (Abt Electronics and Sylvane), in July and in October so far: 25% cost less (typically 8% less), 9% cost more and 66% had not changed. The typical model's price did not move. By kind: window units 30% cheaper, 7% dearer; portable units 33% cheaper, 4% dearer; through-the-wall units and PTACs 19% cheaper, 10% dearer; mini-splits 15% cheaper, 17% dearer. Meanwhile 27% of the models in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.

Prices recorded through October 27Updated every day. Independent, nobody pays for placement.

What it means for what you are buying

  • Window units. Waiting past July paid off for about 3 in 10 window units, typically 7.9% off, while 63% kept the same price. But 26% of the window units in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
  • Portable units. Waiting past July paid off for about 3 in 10 portable units, typically 7.4% off, while 63% kept the same price. But 28% of the portable units in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
  • Through-the-wall units and PTACs. Most through-the-wall units and PTACs cost the same in October so far as in July: 71% had not changed, 19% cost less and 10% more. But 31% of the through-the-wall units and PTACs in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
  • Mini-splits. Mini-splits got dearer more often than cheaper: 17% cost more in October so far than in July and 15% cost less. But 25% of the mini-splits in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.

Same model, same store: October so far against July

Each listing is one model at one store, so a store adding pricier models cannot make prices look higher. A change under 1% either way counts as unchanged. "No longer in stock" counts models, across every store we track.

  • Window units

    125 compared
    Cheaper
    30%
    Unchanged
    63%
    Dearer
    7%

    Typical cut -7.9% · typical rise +7.4% · 26% of July's models no longer in stock

  • Portable units

    27 compared
    Cheaper
    33%
    Unchanged
    63%
    Dearer
    4%

    Typical cut -7.4% · typical rise +15.5% · 28% of July's models no longer in stock

  • Through-the-wall units and PTACs

    48 compared
    Cheaper
    19%
    Unchanged
    71%
    Dearer
    10%

    Typical cut -9.6% · typical rise +2.7% · 31% of July's models no longer in stock

  • Mini-splits

    54 compared
    Cheaper
    15%
    Unchanged
    68%
    Dearer
    17%

    Typical cut -10% · typical rise +7.6% · 25% of July's models no longer in stock

  • All kinds

    254 compared
    Cheaper
    25%
    Unchanged
    66%
    Dearer
    9%

    Typical cut -8% · typical rise +7.5% · 27% of July's models no longer in stock

cheaper unchanged dearer

Month by month

The share of listings cheaper and dearer than in July, each month. A new month joins this table as it is recorded.

Share of models cheaper and dearer than in July, month by month
Against JulyAugustSeptemberOctober 1 to 27
Window units20% cheaper3% dearer28% cheaper9% dearer30% cheaper7% dearer
Portable units18% cheaper3% dearer35% cheaper4% dearer33% cheaper4% dearer
Through-the-wall units and PTACs11% cheaper2% dearer20% cheaper7% dearer19% cheaper10% dearer
Mini-splits5% cheaper4% dearer8% cheaper6% dearer15% cheaper17% dearer
All kinds15% cheaper3% dearer23% cheaper7% dearer25% cheaper9% dearer

In stock now for less than in July

The biggest cuts, at least 5% below the model's July price at the same store (the middle of the prices we recorded there that month). The price shown is the live one the button takes you to.

How we measured this

  • We record the price and stock of every air conditioner we list at Abt Electronics and Sylvane once a day (until August 2026, whenever a price or stock changed), and have kept every record since July 2, 2026.
  • A model's price for a month is the middle of the prices it was in stock at on the days of that month, so one odd day cannot move it. Days it was out of stock carry no price.
  • July 2026 is the first month with enough listings to compare against. Each later month is compared over the listings priced in both, and a figure is shown only when at least 10 listings stand behind it.
  • A model counts as still in stock when a store we track had it in stock in the last 3 days of tracking.
  • Kinds follow our comparison charts: window units (including window-or-wall units), portable units, through-the-wall units and PTACs, and single-room mini-splits. Commercial spot coolers, recalled and refurbished listings are left out. Big-box stores we do not track may have run their own clearance sales, and months we have not recorded yet, such as the winter, are not guessed at.
Prices that just dropped What each size costs today Size your room first

Frequently asked

Are air conditioners cheaper after summer?
Some are, most are not. Comparing the same model at the same store, 25% of the air conditioners we track cost less in October so far than in July, typically 8% less, 9% cost more and 66% had not changed.
Do window air conditioners go on sale after summer?
Waiting past July paid off for about 3 in 10 window units, typically 7.9% off, while 63% kept the same price. But 26% of the window units in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
Are portable air conditioners cheaper in the fall?
Waiting past July paid off for about 3 in 10 portable units, typically 7.4% off, while 63% kept the same price. But 28% of the portable units in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
Is a mini-split cheaper to buy in the fall?
Mini-splits got dearer more often than cheaper: 17% cost more in October so far than in July and 15% cost less. But 25% of the mini-splits in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
Do through-the-wall air conditioners get cheaper after summer?
Most through-the-wall units and PTACs cost the same in October so far as in July: 71% had not changed, 19% cost less and 10% more. But 31% of the through-the-wall units and PTACs in stock in July were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27.
Do air conditioners sell out by fall?
Many do. Of the 292 models in stock at Abt Electronics and Sylvane in July, 79 (27%) were no longer in stock at any store we track by October 27. Waiting for a lower price on a particular model is a bet that it will still be there.
How do I know whether a model's price is good right now?
Every model's page shows what its price has done since we began tracking it: the lowest price we have recorded at each store, and whether the price has trended up or down. Our deals page lists the models whose price has just dropped to the lowest we have tracked.